The key to win the PGA Championship is to be no worse than this spot by the weekend

Planning on winning the PGA Championship? Don’t waste any time. If history is any indication, your fate will likely be sealed by moving day.

Since the PGA Championship moved to stroke play in 1958, 44 of the 62 champions (71 percent) were in the Top 5 after the first two rounds. Only one eventual champion sat outside of the Top 25 after 36 holes.

That one came in 2008 at Oakland Hills, when Padraig Harrington was 1-over Thursday and 4-over Friday, sitting tied for 26th place through the first two rounds — six shots off of J.B. Holmes, who had the only under-par score of the tournament.

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Harrington would put together a master comeback, shooting a 4-under 66 Saturday to vault up to a tie for fourth place, then following up with another 66 to finish at 3-under, two strokes ahead of the runners-up to capture his third major. Here is a look at every winner since the championship moved to stroke play and where he was after the second round.

Year	Winner	Place after Round 2	Shots off lead
2018	Brooks Koepka	3	2
2017	Justin Thomas	T7	5
2016	Jimmy Walker	T1	N/A
2015	Jason Day	2	2
2014	Rory McIlroy	1	N/A
2013	Jason Dufner	1	N/A
2012	Rory McIlroy	T5	2
2011	Keegan Bradley	T1	N/A
2010	Martin Kaymer	T15	4
2009	Y.E. Yang	T9	6
2008	Padraig Harrington	T26	6
2007	Tiger Woods	1	N/A
2006	Tiger Woods	T5	1
2005	Phil Mickelson	1	N/A
2004	Vijay Singh	T1	N/A
2003	Shaun Micheel	1	N/A
2002	Rich Beem	T1	N/A
2001	David Toms	T1	N/A
2000	Tiger Woods	1	N/A
1999	Tiger Woods	3	2
1998	Vijay Singh	1	N/A
1997	Davis Love III	2	1
1996	Mark Brooks	T3	4
1995	Steve Elkington	T4	4
1994	Nick Price	1	N/A
1993	Paul Azinger	T8	4
1992	Nick Price	T7	4
1991	John Daly	1	N/A
1990	Wayne Grady	1	N/A
1989	Payne Stewart	T14	7
1988	Jeff Sluman	T12	6
1987	Larry Nelson	T5	2
1986	Bob Tway	T17	7
1985	Hubert Green	T3	2
1984	Lee Trevino	T1	N/A
1983	Hal Sutton	1	N/A
1982	Raymond Floyd	1	N/A
1981	Larry Nelson	T2	1
1980	Jack Nicklaus	2	1
1979	David Graham	T9	3
1978	John Mahaffey	T6	6
1977	Lanny Wadkins	T3	4
1976	Dave Stockton	T20	7
1975	Jack Nicklaus	T3	4
1974	Lee Trevino	6	4
1973	Jack Nicklaus	T3	1
1972	Gary Player	T7	3
1971	Jack Nicklaus	1	N/A
1970	Dave Stockton	T1	N/A
1969	Raymond Floyd	1	N/A
1968	Julius Boros	T9	4
1967	Don January	T7	8
1966	Al Geiberger	T2	1
1965	Dave Marr	T2	2
1964	Bobby Nichols	1	N/A
1963	Jack Nicklaus	T5	4
1962	Gary Player	T2	1
1961	Jerry Barber	1	N/A
1960	Jay Hebert	1	N/A
1959	Bob Rosburg	T18	9
1958	Dow Finsterwald	T1	N/A

In the entire history of the PGA Championship, no champion has had a bigger turnaround between their first two rounds and their final two rounds than Padraig. After a +5 mark on the first 36 holes, he went -8 on the last 36 — a difference of 13 strokes. 

Of the 61 stroke-play winners in PGA Championship history, 28 have a positive margin between the first two and last two days, four were dead even, and 29 played worse.

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The absolute worst split is a tie between Hal Sutton in 1983 and Phil Mickelson in 2005, both of which were12 strokes worse in the final two rounds than they did in the first two.

In 2005, Mickelson had a three-stroke lead at 8-under after shooting 67 then 65 at Baltusrol. But a 72 Saturday dropped him into a tie for first with Davis Love III. A rain-delay Sunday that pushed the final round into Monday didn’t help, and Mickelson shot another 72 to finish 4-under, but it was enough, as Love fell to 2-under and Thomas Bjorn and Steve Elkington tied at 3-under.

But while Harrington’s win was the best turnaround, it was not the biggest 36-hole comeback. That belongs to Bob Rosburg. 

In 1959, Rosburg had a disappointing start to the tournament, shooting a 71 and 72 to sit at 3-over, a whopping nine strokes off of the leader, Jerry Barber. That put Rosburg in a tie for 20th place. On Saturday, Rosburg tied for the lowest round of the day, shooting a 68 and getting to 1-over. But he was still six strokes behind the leader heading into the final 18. And then there was Sunday. After only sinking five birdies in his first three rounds, Rosburg carded five in his first nine holes Sunday to put the pressure on Barber, who cracked, and went 3-over on the day to finish at 2-under — 1 stroke behind Rosburg, who would win the only major of his career. That 9-stroke deficit after 36 holes is still the largest comeback in PGA Championship history. 

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