Will big name win first major of 2012? Odds are against it, says Garrod

The first major of the year is fast approaching, and after recent events the bookmakers have made Rory McIlroy a firm favorite ahead of Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson.

But before deciding where to place your bet for the Masters, here is a piece of advice. Think carefully.

The last two majors were won by players ranked 111th and 108th in the world -- Darren Clarke at the British Open and Keegan Bradley at the PGA Championship.

Clarke was less than a month away from his 43rd birthday at the time and was playing in his 54th major. Bradley had turned 25 only a month earlier and had never played in a major before. No pattern there then.

They became the 12th and 13th different winners of the last 13 majors and, like the five immediately before them, they were lifting a major title for the first time.

Furthermore, of those seven McIlroy was the only one to be ranked in the world's top 10 when he triumphed.

Graeme McDowell, his predecessor as U.S. Open champion, was 37th in the rankings at the time, then came Louis Oosthuizen at 54th, Martin Kaymer at 13th, Charl Schwartzel at 29th, McIlroy at eighth, then Clarke and Bradley.

The last time anybody in the top three won was Mickelson at the 2010 Masters, and the last time the reigning No. 1 was successful was Woods at the 2008 U.S. Open.

In other words, you could not have a greater contrast between golf and tennis in the modern day.

Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal or Roger Federer have won 27 of the last 28 Grand Slam tournaments, the only exception being Juan Martin Del Potro at the 2009 U.S. Open.

The unpredictability of golf is further illustrated by the fact that the first 13 events on the PGA Tour this season have produced 13 different winners.

The first nine on the European Tour, meanwhile, have seen eight different champions, and the only player to double up can hardly be considered a big name -- South African Branden Grace was at Q-School a month earlier.

Look at the last seven World Golf Championships as well. That is the next level down from the majors and they have seen seven different winners in Francesco Molinari, Luke Donald, Nick Watney, Adam Scott, Kaymer, Hunter Mahan and Justin Rose.

Kaymer is the only one on that list who has a major title to his name -- and the only one who has never made the halfway cut at Augusta National.

Four trips, four early exits. The 27-year-old German, who was world No. 1 when he missed by five shots last April, really does have something to prove on his return next month.

"It's obviously a huge tournament, but there's some golf courses that suit you and some they just don't," he said. "It's a little frustrating.

"I need to try something different again. I don't know what I have to do, but maybe one day it will work out," he added. "There's not really a game plan. I think that I don't really know how to play the golf course."

McIlroy crashed out himself two years ago, but last spring, of course, led the first three rounds before tumbling from four ahead to 10 behind winner Schwartzel with a nightmare 80.

Augusta National can do that to people, but it can also inspire them to fulfil. their dreams.

In 23 appearances at the tournament, Nick Faldo had just three top-10 finishes -- and they were all victories.